> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.notatechguy.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # RBA deputy warns inflation 'materially worse' as hike odds top 50% - URL: https://www.notatechguy.com/rba-deputy-warns-inflation-materially-worse-as-hike-odds-top-50/ - Published: 2026-10-21T07:30:52.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-21T07:30:53.000Z - Description: RBA deputy Hauser says inflation is 'materially worse' as markets price a November hike above 50 per cent, hitting borrowers near 2024 payment peaks. - Author: Marcello Babbili - Tags: Property & Economy, RBA, Inflation, Interest Rates RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told a Sydney investment conference on 21 October that Australia's inflation outlook has grown "materially worse" heading into the November board meeting, according to reporting [S¹](https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/rba-deputy-warns-inflation-outlook-materially-worse-ahead-of-november-meeting/ar-AA2fGxgR?ocid=BingNewsVerp&ref=notatechguy.com). Financial markets now put the chance of a rate hike next month above 50 per cent [S¹](https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/rba-deputy-warns-inflation-outlook-materially-worse-ahead-of-november-meeting/ar-AA2fGxgR?ocid=BingNewsVerp&ref=notatechguy.com). Note: the exact instruments or consensus measure behind that probability have not been independently verified, and no underlying pricing data has been released for checking. **My read:** This is the bluntest language I have seen from a sitting RBA deputy governor this year. Hauser did not explicitly call for a hike, and a fireside chat at a Citi conference is not a board decision. But "materially worse" is not the vocabulary of a central banker who thinks the inflation fight is on track. The question I would be asking is whether the board has already shifted and the speech is the soft landing for that move, or whether Hauser is genuinely uncertain and the market is running ahead of the bank. The RBA's own speeches page confirms Hauser appeared at Citi's Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference on 21 October [P⁴](https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-dg-2026-10-21.html?ref=notatechguy.com). He had flagged similar concerns six weeks earlier on ABC's 7.30 [P⁵](https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-dg-2026-09-08.html?ref=notatechguy.com). The RBA's February 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy had already noted market pricing of around two rate rises for the year, with a February hike seen as roughly a three-in-four chance [P³](https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/feb/financial-conditions.html?ref=notatechguy.com). ### Three rate rises have pushed mortgage payments close to their 2024 peak The RBA's own August 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy [P⁶](https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/financial-conditions.html?ref=notatechguy.com) documents the tightening already in the system. Banks passed on three cash rate increases from earlier in the year to both deposit and lending rates. Scheduled mortgage payments climbed relative to household disposable income to sit close to their 2024 peak [P⁶](https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/financial-conditions.html?ref=notatechguy.com). That is the transmission mechanism in plain terms. The cash rate moves, banks reprice loans within weeks, and the share of household income consumed by the mortgage grows. Renters feel it indirectly, as landlords facing higher repayments pass costs through where vacancy rates allow. A fourth hike in November would push scheduled payments above that 2024 peak. For a variable-rate borrower who has already absorbed three increases this year, the margin between comfortable and stretched is thin. ### Hauser described a worse outlook but stopped short of calling for a hike The evidence carries a clear gap. Hauser described the outlook as worse, but he did not explicitly endorse or call for a November rate hike [S¹](https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/rba-deputy-warns-inflation-outlook-materially-worse-ahead-of-november-meeting/ar-AA2fGxgR?ocid=BingNewsVerp&ref=notatechguy.com). The "materially worse" framing is a judgement about the inflation trajectory, not a policy recommendation. Markets have read it as hawkish, pricing more than a 50 per cent chance of a move [S¹](https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/rba-deputy-warns-inflation-outlook-materially-worse-ahead-of-november-meeting/ar-AA2fGxgR?ocid=BingNewsVerp&ref=notatechguy.com), but the exact instruments or consensus measure behind that probability are not specified in the available reporting. Former RBA board member Ian Harper had already said another hike was plausible on 7 October. Hauser's remarks bring that view inside the current institution. ### Mortgage brokers face a shrinking serviceability buffer if rates move For mortgage brokers, the practical question is serviceability: the stress-test margin banks apply to check whether a borrower can withstand future rate rises. If the cash rate moves in November, the base rate that buffer sits on top of also moves, shrinking the maximum loan size a given income can support. Builders face a more ambiguous signal. Higher rates cool demand for new projects, but the inflation Hauser is worried about includes construction inputs. A rate hike that slows the economy without easing supply-side cost pressures leaves builders squeezed from both directions. First-home buyers have already watched borrowing power contract through three hikes this year [P⁶](https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/financial-conditions.html?ref=notatechguy.com). A fourth would reduce it further, even as the inflation that drives price growth in existing homes continues to run. The RBA board next meets in November, with the monetary policy decision and full statement due after the meeting. --- *Sources: [S1 — RBA deputy warns inflation outlook 'materially worse' ahead of Novembe](https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/rba-deputy-warns-inflation-outlook-materially-worse-ahead-of-november-meeting/ar-AA2fGxgR?ocid=BingNewsVerp&ref=notatechguy.com) · [S2 — RBA Deputy Governor Says Australia’s Inflation Outlook Has Deteriorate](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxOdld3SEtIOXBfLTZjTFBMWFBoUW1sZlFsX2hiZU92WGMtS2EwSWloT2pBREd1OXM5anlMNHR3MHZUWm1VQkRXYWZVSktBd1FUVzBsV056N0kzYldiLWtZWXRJTlp1WDgyMHNsNEk1MDgyLVVMampmQTZpcWF2ODdGZXY0OU11U3NNd0FRTVA2OUc2dW9Yd0lWaFBGWHFIeEVVYXVJQjVmUC1HZjRGTi1ZTXpiVVc0c2JIcnA4N21jLVpqT0NaOHNjUk5MbW1mV3U5c3c?oc=5&ref=notatechguy.com) · [P3 — Financial Conditions | Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2026 | ](https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/feb/financial-conditions.html?ref=notatechguy.com) · [P4 — Fireside Chat by Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor at Citi's Australia & ](https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-dg-2026-10-21.html?ref=notatechguy.com) · [P5 — Interview with Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, on ABC 7.30 | Speeches ](https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-dg-2026-09-08.html?ref=notatechguy.com) · [P6 — Financial Conditions | Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2026 | RB](https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/financial-conditions.html?ref=notatechguy.com)* --- *Written from 6 sourced items, 4 of them primary.* ![Market-implied probability of an RBA rate hike](https://storage.ghost.io/c/6e/89/6e896869-22ef-4281-a213-b4c462c17cff/content/images/2026/10/chart_4450c126d2709f902534.png) ## More from Not A Tech Guy - [RBA November 2026 decision: the data after the September hike](https://www.notatechguy.com/rba-november-2026-decision/) - [Australian unemployment hits 4.7%, rate hike odds drop](https://www.notatechguy.com/australian-unemployment-hits-4-7-rate-hike-odds-drop/) - [WA dwelling completions drop 14% to 19,569 in 2025-26](https://www.notatechguy.com/wa-dwelling-completions-drop-14-to-19-569-in-2025-26/)